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Back Streets

Wall Street Snake Oil

I’m sure that movie buffs are familiar with the snake oil salesman character which appeared in many Western films. He was a “doctor” with dubious credentials that traveled by covered wagon from town to town. The fast-talking salesman would sell “medicine”, such as snake oil, using lots of marketing hype and bogus “evidence”.

In order to enhance sales, the snake oil salesman would also always have an accomplice in the crowd (a shill) who would attest to the marvelous beneficial effects of the snake oil. The snake oil salesman would, of course, attempt to leave town before the swindle was discovered.

This practice became known as grifting and its practitioners grifters. Fast forward more than a hundred years and we still have snake oil salesmen who try to sell the public something of no real value. Such characters abound on Wall Street and, like their brethren of the Old West, they usually attempt to “leave town” before the swindle is discovered with millions of dollars from bonuses, etc.. 

A recent example was that terrific grifter, Bernie Madoff. He sold lots of bottles of snake oil promising investors smooth, steady returns year after year. He sold these bottles with the help of his shills – the feeder funds – who promised their investors that to keep their portfolios healthy they needed a dose of Bernie’s “medicine”.

For another example of grifting, just look at all of the complex products that Wall Street sold around the world as “safe” investments without anyone being concerned about the risks involved with many of the securities contained within the products.

That scenario reminds me of a Three Stooges short where Moe, Larry, Curly were trying to sell bottles of medicine. Curly and Larry asked Moe, “What is this stuff used for?” Moe replies, “You want to know what this stuff is for?” Curly and Larry say yes. As Moe slaps them, he says “It’s for SALE!” That sure sounds like a Wall Street sales meeting to me.

Wall Street Snake Oil Salesmen

People have to realize that Wall Street firms rarely have the best interests of their clients at heart. If anyone has some spare time, they may want to peruse a new book by John Kay of the Financial Times called The Long and the Short of It. Mr. Kay thinks that the financial world is greedy, cynical and self-interested. Gee, I wonder how long Mr. Kay has known John Thain?

Mr. Kay goes on to say in his book that individual investors should avoid most “professionals” and manage their own money. He has several good reasons for this. Mr. Kay points out that professional money managers need to make money off of your investments, whether you make money from the investments or not. Just think of all the fees paid out by investors to “professional” money managers in 2008, only to have these “professionals” lose a large chunk of their money for them.

Another reason that Mr. Kay thinks that individual investors can do a better job of managing their own money rather than “professional” money managers is that the individual can focus on long-term returns and absolute returns, not “relative” returns. Here’s a direct quote from Mr. Kay’s book -  “The major risk a financial advisor runs is not the risk that his clients do badly, but the risk that his clients do worse than other people”, meaning other advisors’ clients.

So if a person goes to their financial advisor and says “hey, I lost 30% last year!” their advisor will say, “Yes, but you outperformed the averages!” The emphasis of “professional” money managers is on relative performance, not on absolute performance.

As Mr. Kay also points out, Wall Street “professionals” think only in the short-term. Their primary goal is to beat the “benchmark” on a quarterly basis. If the “benchmark” is negative 30 per cent, Wall Street money managers are very pleased to have clients’ portfolios return a negative 20 per cent. That would mean that they are a “star” in the Wall Street universe.

Unfortunately, this type of Wall Street “outperformance” can be very damaging to a client’s long-term portfolio, such as a retirement fund. But such concerns really don’t matter to Wall Street “professionals”. Where your portfolio stands in 5 or 10 years doesn’t cross their radar screen.

I want to again emphasize another point about most Wall Street professionals who appear quite often on CNBC air. Most of these Wall Street people do not think for themselves, or think outside the box. Most of the guests on CNBC air simply run within the supposed safety of the “herd”.

Professor Richard Sylla, financial historian at New York University’s Stern School of Business, says that Wall Street analysts and money managers have little incentive to produce anything that deviates significantly outside of the consensus.

Professor Sylla says, “They reinforce each other. That’s the only way they keep themselves off the hook.” In other words, Wall Street money managers have their views skewed by one thing – self-preservation. If the money managers stay inside the safety of the “herd”, then their cushy jobs will be safe. Whether their clients make any money is well down on their list of concerns.

I did laugh when I saw one humorous line from Mr. Kay’s book which was in agreement with my contrarian instincts. Mr. Kay said, “The best way to use the expertise of the financial services industry is to do the opposite of what they recommend”.

The Latest Bottle of Snake Oil

This brings me to the latest bottle of snake oil that the “doctors” on Wall Street ,with dubious credentials, are selling – deflation. The deflation trade has become an extremely crowded trade. This trade will probably become even more crowded over the next few months as government figures will come out showing deflation.

This will be the bogus “evidence” that the Wall Street grifters will be pointing toward. The shills on CNBC will be telling everyone “Yes, deflation is here and will be here for a long time. Step right up, pardner, and buy these wonderful zero per cent Treasuries! It will lead to healthy portfolios.” Please do not be suckered by Wall Street’s short-term thinking shills, who never look ahead more than three months.

People that want to ride along with the deflation “herd” should take a really hard look at what actual deflationary expectations Wall Street has priced into the Treasury market. According to the Financial Times, the Treasury’s inflation protected securities (TIPS) market suggests 4 per cent deflation this year and next, with inflation barely returning in 10 years, and also very little inflation for the following two decades.

This is staggering – the Wall Street “herd” is expecting our country to be wandering in the deflationary desert for the next 30 years! This did not happen even during the Great Depression. Anyone believing this delusional scenario deserves to lose their money to Wall Street, just the same as People Who bought snake oil from a “grifter” in the Old West.

For contrarian investors, while the Wall Street “herd” is wandering in the deflationary desert, this scenario should lead them to buying TIPS over the course of the next few months. Where else can an investor get a 4.5 per cent risk-free, real yield?

Don’t Become a Victim of Grifting,

Tony D’Altorio

Analyst, Oxbury Research

About the Author

Originally formed as an underground investment club, Oxbury Publishing is an investment think tank comprised of a wide variety of Wall Street professionals – from equity analysts to futures floor traders – all independent thinkers and all capital market veterans.

Our goal is to provide our readers with unique analysis and ideas that will help them invest successfully – in both bull and bear markets. With the vast amount of speculation and volatility in the markets today, investors can’t afford to wait for information – they need it now and constantly.

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On Mercy Streets, vocalist Kate McGarry seamlessly combines music from many disparate sources into a cohesive, emotional experience. “Mercy Street,” written by Peter Gabriel, is a solid display of her folk-pop sensibilities in an arrangement that clearly sets her version apart from the river of reworked pop hit arrangements. McGarry’s vocal style is soft, subtle, and sensitive, and provides a welcomed textural contrast and stylistic variety to “State of Emergency” and “Whatever Lola Wants, Lola Gets.” This is not a typical folk-jazz offering. With contributions from pianist and labelmate Fred Hersch on two tracks, the music is sometimes carefully deconstructed and put back together, now including elements of jazz and versatile drums and percussion from Kenny Wollesen. Overall, Kate McGarry has amazing articulation and offers an effective set that bridges the sonic chasm between folk-pop and jazz. ~ Paula Edelstein, Rovi Performers: Fred Hersch – Piano; Kate McGarry – Vocals; Keith Ganz – Guitar (Acoustic); Kenny Wollesen – Percussion, Drums; Sean Smith – Double Bass, Bass; Steve Cardenas – Guitar (Electric), Guitar (Acoustic)

VOL. 7-BACK2 THE STREETS


VOL. 7-BACK2 THE STREETS


$13.71


Duvallllllll, we take you through the streets of Jacksonville, down the back roads of Huntsville. Through the city of Augusta the golf capital of Georgia. Rollin through the streets of KY for the Derby, taking a stop in Laurel, Mississippi. Head down sout

An Orphan on the Streets/Watch


An Orphan on the Streets/Watch


$18.36


AN ORPHAN ON THE STREETS: After a night on the streets, Three Hairs looks for work wherever he can get it; he polishes shoes, picks garbage and even sells newspapers, but finally decides to give up. He puts a ‘For Sale’ sign on his back and goes looking

Hurricane Streets


Hurricane Streets


$21.21


This Sundance Film Festival award winner, focuses on a troubled teen trapped by the city, planning for the day that he can make a new life with his uncle in New Mexico. Just when he is on the verge of realizing his dream, a stunning turn of events creates a dark vortex that threatens to pull him down…unless he can engineer his escape. ** PLEASE NOTE: This product is manufactured on demand using DVD-R recordable media. These discs are expected to play back in DVD video Play Only devices and may not play back in other DVD devices, including Recorders and PC Drives.**

City Streets


City Streets


$17.81


A crippled orphan, Fellows, turns to fatherly Carrillo for moral and material sustenance. Carrillo sells his store to pay for an operation for the paralyzed Fellows, becomes impoverished, and eventually loses her to the state. Carrillo strives to regain her, accomplishes the feat, but dies of an illness contracted while fighting for her release. ** PLEASE NOTE: This product is manufactured on demand using DVD-R recordable media. These discs are expected to play back in DVD video Play Only devices and may not play back in other DVD devices, including Recorders and PC Drives.**

Streets


Streets


$19.99


NaxArt Streets – Premium Poster




What’s the first thing that enters your mind when you think of MIT, the world-renowned Massachusetts Institute of Technology: engineering genius, mathematical wizard, visionary, geek, hacker? If you chose any one of those, you would be correct. Mix them all together, add some smoke and mirrors, big-time anonymous investors, a dash of anarchy for good measure, and you get one of the best scams of all times–the MIT Blackjack Team–the ultimate in high stakes, genius-backed hacking! Infamy is nothing new to MIT. Some of the world’s wiliest hackers hailed from the hallowed halls of MIT; but when one gifted math professor and six gifted students banded together, they propelled organized hacking to dizzying heights and snookered organized gambling to the tune of millions! That was sweet music to the ears of millions who have left behind small fortunes in their quest to beat the casinos.

After school club

The MIT Blackjack team began as an after-school club held in campus classrooms where students assembled to apply their genius to card games, unwind (at least, by MIT standards), and have fun. The club eventually evolved into serious business. The team set up a complete underground system of casino mock-ups spanning apartments, warehouses, and classrooms scattered across Boston where they worked diligently to perfect their scheme. Before advancing to live play in the casino, each player had to pass a rigorous battery of tests encompassing all of the roles under simulated casino conditions, including distraction and harassment. Still, they were not ready for the big league until further honing their skills in Boston’s Chinatown before heading to Las Vegas.

Card Counting

Card counting, the heart of their system, is a proven winning technique. Blackjack odds offer the one opportunity for those with skill, dogged determination, and discipline to consistently beat the house. The casinos know that Blackjack is vulnerable (that smart, disciplined players actually have a fighting chance of winning), and that is why they ban the big winners and harass and threaten potential big winners.

Casino management further understands that it takes only one or two mistakes to turn a player’s winning system into a house win, and that is the only reason that they tolerate card counting–until it turns against them. They rely on human frailties, such as lack of discipline and distraction, to return the advantage to the house.

The MIT team used card counting as the foundation of their system; it was only one among a number of tools in their magical tool box, and even then, it wasn’t traditional card counting. It added a high-low system, based on the statistical probability of receiving high or low cards, and they added an additional technique for cutting the cards that further skewed the odds in their favor.

Team members traveled together, seemingly as total strangers. Each assumed one of a number of well-crafted fake identities, the teams included several types of players, each member playing a well-defined role. Anonymous investors provided the stake and expected a return on their investment. One such outing netted a 154% ROI after expenses. Transporting huge amounts of cash back and forth was another obstacle they overcame with ingenuity. Cash traveled in every conceivable manner: strapped to bodies, on “mules,” in hollow crutches, just to name a few.

High Tech vs Low Tech

Their reign spanned a good part of the 1990s when they traveled the casino circuit with total abandon. Their $400,000 winning weekend in Las Vegas is legendary. Casino technology was not yet at a stage where it could match wits with MIT genius. At least, it had not made its way to practical application in Las Vegas, Ironically, it would be low-tech sloppiness that brought the team down in the end.

The casinos had learned to deal with the card counters long before the MIT pikers hit the scene. When they identified a card counter, they would ensure that his play at the tables was a living nightmare, and should the card counter take the house for a large sum, they would immediately ban him. Technology in the 1990s had matured to a point where bad news traveled fast. When the card counter was detected at one casino, it became nearly impossible to escape detection at any other casino.

Profiled MIT Blackjack Team

Las Vegas casino bosses relied on a long-established profile of the Blackjack card counter, but since the MIT team ran counter to the profile, that also worked in their favor, helping them to escape detection. The profile assumed one lone card counter. The team’s nonchalant, seemingly random style of play also ran counter to the profile. But they were crazy like foxes–until they were no more.

Finally, sloppiness brought them to their knees. Eventually, they lost their discipline and their cool; the well-oiled machine built with the precision of a Swiss watch began to fall apart. They began to fraternize, and not just with the usual Las Vegas temptations, but with each other–in public. A total chance spotting of the teams relaxing and playing at a Las Vegas pool blew their cover. The tale of their unraveling wound its way back to the back streets of Boston before they finally disbanded. The odds had finally turned against them, and the stakes were far too high for even the geniuses from MIT.

The last remaining team player was escorted from the table with the parting words, “You can’t play here. You’re too good for us.”

Blackjack Team in the News

The tale of the MIT Blackjack Team doesn’t end with its demise. ABC, CNN, History Channel, and CBS’s 60 Minutes all picked up the story. Bringing Down the House : The Inside Story of Six MIT Students Who Took Vegas for Millions (Simon & Schuster Adult Publishing Group, 2002), by Ben Mezrich, chronicles the escapades of the team from its inception to the end of the line through the eyes of team member, Kevin Lewis (not his real name). One enterprising former member currently offers seminars based on the system.

The final irony has yet to play itself out. Kevin Spacey is producing the movie version of the book, due to be released by MGM sometime in 2006. One has to wonder if the movie will help MGM recover its losses to the MIT Blackjack Team.


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